Navigating Uncertainty: Evaluating the European Economic Forecasts Amidst Pandemic and Energy Crises

This analysis is part of the recurrent review of the accuracy of the European Commission European Economic Forecasts.

Highlights

• Evaluates forecast performance of GDP growth, inflation, and government budget balance
• Extends previous evaluation by the period 2018-2023
• Assesses forecast quality, including unbiasedness and accuracy, using standard metrics and econometric tests
• Examines sources of forecast inaccuracies, including assumptions underpinning forecasts, economic uncertainty, impact of pandemic and energy crises
• Uses model-based decompositions to analyse forecast errors, based on the European Commission’s Global Multi-country model
• Compares Commission's forecast performance with other international institutions

Information and identifiers

Discussion Paper 222. May 2025. Brussels. PDF. 64pp. Tab. Graph. Bibliogr. Free.

KC-01-25-015-EN-N (online)
ISBN 978-92-68-23673-4 (online)  
ISSN 2443-8022 (online)
doi:10.2765/7853082 (online) 

JEL classification: C1, E60, E66

Disclaimer

European Economy Discussion Papers are written by the staff of the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, or by experts working in association with them, to inform discussion on economic policy and to stimulate debate. The views expressed in this document are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the official views of the European Commission.